A pause to reflect on Complexity

Or, as a friend of mine says it: “no one really understands complexity!"

Some foundation ideas:

1. There is some complexity in everything, everyone, everywhere, everywhen, and everyhow - at a certain point you cannot reduce complexity further, no matter what you do
2. To deal with complexity, we need to find a new perspective, this simplification
3. There is great stress relief whenever we are able to find and act on simplifying anything that is complex. And relieving stress is always better for health.
4. As the number of variables increases, so does complexity
5. As the number of variations/changes in those variables increases, so does complexity
6. As the frequency/speed of changes in those variables increases, so does complexity
7. Complexity is cause-and-effect but it reaches a point where we cannot reliably predict the effects (desirable and unintended, undesirable) of a cause; so too there is a point where we cannot reliably identify root causes of an effect we observe
8. Complexity is not evil, it just is
9. For anything to be really interesting to us / people / individuals we need a balance of certainty and uncertainty - else it gets boring and non-rewarding
10. Complexity rises exponentially, so 1 unit of complexity added to another 1 unit of complexity equals more than 2 units, maybe 3 (probably), but maybe also 4 or 5 units. Who can tell? Certainly not beforehand!
11. An individual person can only handle / cope with / manage so much complexity. Once their “buffers” are full, that’s it. And each person’s max complexity management is unique
12. A high performance team can cope with more complexity, than the individual members can independently. Teams cope better with, and cope with more complexity than groups. And groups too, can sometimes cope with more than individuals operating alone do. Synergy is really a thing.
13. Yes, VUCA - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity is a useful acronym to use to help you identify your assessment of a situation
14. Yes, the Stacey Matrix is also useful in software and other complex spaces.
15. Yes, the Cynefin model is also useful in complex spaces.

Anecdote 1: 

“Complicated is like a diesel submarine - we know a lot about submarines, and given a submarine we could pull it all apart, making carefully detailed plans, and once all apart, we could reassemble it using our plans and all the pieces we have. Complexity however is like mayonnaise … it does not matter how you slice, dice and analyse mayonnaise, you still have mayonnaise”

1. You will never be able to return mayonnaise to its original ingredients (egg yolks, salt, pepper, mustard, oil, vinegar/lemon juice) by analysing it, decomposing it, slicing it or dicing it
2.  You could take mayonnaise into a lab and chemically and with heat do something with it, to produce protein, water, acid, some salts, some carbon, and a few other chemicals - but you will not get the ingredients again. And it cost you a lot of time and money to get there. And with these more basic “ingredients” you will not be able to reconstruct the mayonnaise you had - something will have been lost.

Anecdote 2:

“Simple is like me tying my shoelaces. I have been doing this for more than 4 decades, I am quite comfortable and confident to do the action. If a project manager or sponsor asked me for a time (which is also cost) estimate, I could easily say “30 seconds approximately” and be believable, believed and probably get the budget to complete the project on time, on budget, right scope and right quality.

Complicated is like me tying the shoelaces of a room of 16-20 people. When I estimate “30 seconds per person, plus 5-15 seconds to move between people, plus a buffer of 10% of the total estimate to cater for unfamiliar shoe or shoestring options and also for 5% for some fatigue” - is also believable, and can be believed, might need to be negotiated a little to understand and cater for risks, might be considered a bit expensive but overall, probably a goer and could get budget to complete this complicated project on time or earlier, on budget or cheaper, right scope, and also right quality.

Then there is complexity. That’s like me being asked to tie the shoelaces of everyone in the corporate headquarters building. Multiple floors, multiple rooms, thousands of people. Other variables show up quickly “What if people leave before I reach them? What if people arrive after I left that space? What if everyone goes home before I am done? Or I break my fingers, knees or back? Or someone accidentally kicks me in the face and breaks my nose or glasses?” and many many more “What if?” questions arise. Faced with all this, the estimate I create could be extremely large, the caveats wide reaching, and the buffers enormous, and so usually the project is abandoned before it is funded or started. Good business!

However, in complexity there is risk of failure AND also possibility of success and reward! It’s a bit of anxiety AND excitement. And when we are in the right balance of psychological safety, and subjected to the energies of anxiety and excitement, sometimes we get an insight, and inspiration to do something previously not thought or considered. For example … locking the whole building and installing me at the 1 open door / security access point. That way everyone entering has well tied shoelaces, guaranteed. And we can measure progress rate. If it is too slow, and the sponsor deems that the project must be done regardless, suddenly we have the accurate business case of how many more people to hire, and how many more points to open. As the queue outside the building, block, whole neighbourhood dwindles, we can get pretty specific about when we will finish at the current rate of progress, and even begin to figure out when we can start rolling people off the project to save costs.

And .. this is the agile project management approach, in case you were wondering where I got this from :-) Years of training people to understand complexity and why agility mindsets are very useful to have! We find innovation arises more frequently from complex problem spaces, requiring complex solutions, when such contexts are managed according to the principles of change and resolution.

Simple projects are best executed like we did such projects before - very efficiently and effectively, basically rinse and repeat - the essence of manufacturing and traditional project management methods such as APMP and PRINCE2 (projects in controlled environments). Complicated projects are sometimes best suited to traditional project management methods, and sometimes to agile project management methods - it depends on who is available, what they know, and what else is really available - beliefs and experience do matter.