A pause to reflect on Complexity

Or, as a friend of mine says it: “no one really understands complexity!"

Some foundation ideas:

1. There is some complexity in everything, everyone, everywhere, everywhen, and everyhow - at a certain point you cannot reduce complexity further, no matter what you do
2. To deal with complexity, we need to find a new perspective, this simplification
3. There is great stress relief whenever we are able to find and act on simplifying anything that is complex. And relieving stress is always better for health.
4. As the number of variables increases, so does complexity
5. As the number of variations/changes in those variables increases, so does complexity
6. As the frequency/speed of changes in those variables increases, so does complexity
7. Complexity is cause-and-effect but it reaches a point where we cannot reliably predict the effects (desirable and unintended, undesirable) of a cause; so too there is a point where we cannot reliably identify root causes of an effect we observe
8. Complexity is not evil, it just is
9. For anything to be really interesting to us / people / individuals we need a balance of certainty and uncertainty - else it gets boring and non-rewarding
10. Complexity rises exponentially, so 1 unit of complexity added to another 1 unit of complexity equals more than 2 units, maybe 3 (probably), but maybe also 4 or 5 units. Who can tell? Certainly not beforehand!
11. An individual person can only handle / cope with / manage so much complexity. Once their “buffers” are full, that’s it. And each person’s max complexity management is unique
12. A high performance team can cope with more complexity, than the individual members can independently. Teams cope better with, and cope with more complexity than groups. And groups too, can sometimes cope with more than individuals operating alone do. Synergy is really a thing.
13. Yes, VUCA - volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity is a useful acronym to use to help you identify your assessment of a situation
14. Yes, the Stacey Matrix is also useful in software and other complex spaces.
15. Yes, the Cynefin model is also useful in complex spaces.

Anecdote 1: 

“Complicated is like a diesel submarine - we know a lot about submarines, and given a submarine we could pull it all apart, making carefully detailed plans, and once all apart, we could reassemble it using our plans and all the pieces we have. Complexity however is like mayonnaise … it does not matter how you slice, dice and analyse mayonnaise, you still have mayonnaise”

1. You will never be able to return mayonnaise to its original ingredients (egg yolks, salt, pepper, mustard, oil, vinegar/lemon juice) by analysing it, decomposing it, slicing it or dicing it
2.  You could take mayonnaise into a lab and chemically and with heat do something with it, to produce protein, water, acid, some salts, some carbon, and a few other chemicals - but you will not get the ingredients again. And it cost you a lot of time and money to get there. And with these more basic “ingredients” you will not be able to reconstruct the mayonnaise you had - something will have been lost.

Anecdote 2:

“Simple is like me tying my shoelaces. I have been doing this for more than 4 decades, I am quite comfortable and confident to do the action. If a project manager or sponsor asked me for a time (which is also cost) estimate, I could easily say “30 seconds approximately” and be believable, believed and probably get the budget to complete the project on time, on budget, right scope and right quality.

Complicated is like me tying the shoelaces of a room of 16-20 people. When I estimate “30 seconds per person, plus 5-15 seconds to move between people, plus a buffer of 10% of the total estimate to cater for unfamiliar shoe or shoestring options and also for 5% for some fatigue” - is also believable, and can be believed, might need to be negotiated a little to understand and cater for risks, might be considered a bit expensive but overall, probably a goer and could get budget to complete this complicated project on time or earlier, on budget or cheaper, right scope, and also right quality.

Then there is complexity. That’s like me being asked to tie the shoelaces of everyone in the corporate headquarters building. Multiple floors, multiple rooms, thousands of people. Other variables show up quickly “What if people leave before I reach them? What if people arrive after I left that space? What if everyone goes home before I am done? Or I break my fingers, knees or back? Or someone accidentally kicks me in the face and breaks my nose or glasses?” and many many more “What if?” questions arise. Faced with all this, the estimate I create could be extremely large, the caveats wide reaching, and the buffers enormous, and so usually the project is abandoned before it is funded or started. Good business!

However, in complexity there is risk of failure AND also possibility of success and reward! It’s a bit of anxiety AND excitement. And when we are in the right balance of psychological safety, and subjected to the energies of anxiety and excitement, sometimes we get an insight, and inspiration to do something previously not thought or considered. For example … locking the whole building and installing me at the 1 open door / security access point. That way everyone entering has well tied shoelaces, guaranteed. And we can measure progress rate. If it is too slow, and the sponsor deems that the project must be done regardless, suddenly we have the accurate business case of how many more people to hire, and how many more points to open. As the queue outside the building, block, whole neighbourhood dwindles, we can get pretty specific about when we will finish at the current rate of progress, and even begin to figure out when we can start rolling people off the project to save costs.

And .. this is the agile project management approach, in case you were wondering where I got this from :-) Years of training people to understand complexity and why agility mindsets are very useful to have! We find innovation arises more frequently from complex problem spaces, requiring complex solutions, when such contexts are managed according to the principles of change and resolution.

Simple projects are best executed like we did such projects before - very efficiently and effectively, basically rinse and repeat - the essence of manufacturing and traditional project management methods such as APMP and PRINCE2 (projects in controlled environments). Complicated projects are sometimes best suited to traditional project management methods, and sometimes to agile project management methods - it depends on who is available, what they know, and what else is really available - beliefs and experience do matter.

A pause to reflect on Psychological Safety - How Free Am I

How can you really know that you are psychologically safe?

Most people detect and experience the absence of safety, not the presence of it.

If your normal is “abnormal” then the ability to notice something other, is severely subconsciously restricted. And your mind, your rational thinking and knowing tool, cannot tell the difference. If you're accustomed to a perpetual state of preparation for the unknown - maybe even living with a continuous "stress" response due to multiple little stressors continuously going off all around you, then it's unlikely that you're going to be feeling the variations due to the cortisol, adrenaline and testosterone flowing all through you without your conscious awareness of them.

If, by now, you don’t know when you are psychologically safe or not, then read on. :) This is the gist of what I have learned firsthand in the workplace, on experiential courses, from life, from resources and from other people’s descriptions. For the past 13 years specifically, but reflectively since pre-teen years.

So, let’s start with an easy step of this short journey together.

Here is a phrase with deep significance - please don’t read over it - instead actually pause and reflect on it. Read it once with the mind, and again with the heart: 

“If you are in the picture, you cannot see the frame”

Notice, perhaps, if you’re comfortable with this, or not.

Then, a short description of a little goldfish, in a little bowl:

• It does not know it is in a little bowl - that is it’s entire universe
• Every now and again, it bumps up against a barrier - which may be visible or invisible, but for sure, it’s not going past that barrier
• It does not know about wider waters, wild waters, predators, or even what it might eat in the wild
• It possibly does not even know that it is breathing water (in the similar way that we humans forget or disregard that we are also breathing a substance, called air. It’s not nothing, it is definitely something)

Again, notice, perhaps, if you’re comfortable with this, or not.

If you want more, I highly recommend reading up on a much older story, Plato’s Cave, or more correctly, The Allegory of the Cave. Here’s a good explanation: https://www.masterclass.com/articles/allegory-of-the-cave-explainede 

So, back to my post's title then: You could be in: 

• In a group, old or new; or
• With your manager, colleague, customer, stakeholder; or
• With a person you just met, a friend, a family member

Ask yourself a little question and see what happens to your thoughts, your feelings, your body.

Ask yourself “How free am I?”  

Here are some variations:

• How free am I to <ask this person, this group, for help>?
• How free am I to <tell the other person they make me angry>?
• How free am I to <leave this room, without saying another word>?
• How free am I to <put my idea out openly>?
• How free am I to <have my idea crushed if I put it out openly>?
• How free am I to <have my idea crushed, if I put it out openly, to tell the others what it is like to have my idea crushed by them, and to leave this room without saying another word>?
• How free am I to <say No, without a reason>?
• How free am I to <say No, with a reason>?
• How free am I to <say Yes, with a reason>?

Notice, when you pause on your question in the moment, what comes back via your mind, via your feelings and emotions, and what response your body has. These are just additional sources of information, which you can use to make your conscious decision and then act thoughtfully.

Sometimes, we can notice that we are not 100% free, and that’s okay, just the fact that we know that, and can then still more consciously work within our non-free, non-safe context, helps us to be free. And being free is a major contributor to holistic health. 

In the case of psychological safety, noticing that perhaps we are not entirely free, helps us to then frame a question, or a statement, that we can share with other people, balancing risk vs reward, and that could cause the group or the relationship we have with the other, to strengthen.

“How free am I?” is a great litmus test for psychological safety. What you do with the result of it, can actually create amazing experiences for yourself and others. Please try it, and let me know how what shifted for you when you did!